Read Simon Kolawole's Exposé On The APC and nPDP Merger

Maybe I am seeing things that many observers cannot see yet. Or maybe I am deluded. But I will continue to say that the current blossoming of a viable opposition is going to be one of the greatest catalysts for democracy and development in Nigeria. With the defection of five PDP governors to the APC, we are now entering a phase in our democracy where the ruling party and the opposition are almost evenly matched, at least on paper.

I, for one, had been impatient with the PDP governors because they had been threatening endlessly to defect to the APC. Governor Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) had made it a daily habit to announce that he was on his way to the APC office in Yola to pick membership form. That’s a done deal now.

But there are two broad reactions to the latest development...
Some are so excited. They say it marks the end of the 'evil' PDP and the imminent enthronement of 'progressives' to “save Nigeria” from misrule. To these people, I say: calm down. You don’t move from being a “bad” governor to a “good” governor simply because you defected from one party to the other yesterday. You don’t suddenly become Nigeria’s saviour because you left PDP for APC after a disagreement over the national cake.

Like I have always said, the PDP crisis is a falling-out among a committee of friends. It is not about potable water or education or healthcare. It is pure power play. It is about 2015 elections. Who gets the presidential ticket? Who will be the running mate? Whose son will be governor in Adamawa State? Nyako’s or Bamanga Tukur’s?

On the other side, you have people unfairly condemning the opposition. They said APC is doomed to fail, that it is a congregation of crooks, that the party is just driven by the lust for power with all kinds of characters jumping on the bandwagon. Someone pointed out that APC is filled with people who never see eye-to-eye on matters such as fiscal federalism, quota system, federal character, state police, “true federalism” and all that.

To this group, I say: what’s your problem? To start with, we cannot change government democratically without these politicians. I can write all that I like on this page every Sunday, but it is politicians that are in charge. Therefore, if we want to change Nigeria democratically, we need these same politicians we condemn. Change their thinking and you will change the fortunes of Nigeria.

Let me say this again and again and again: I do not believe PDP is a party of sinners and APC is a party of saints. I do not believe only PDP rigs or only PDP is filled with corrupt and inept leaders. I would love to say that in order to earn some applause, but my conscience will not allow me. Nigerian politicians, no matter their party, language and religion, are basically the same. Let me be clear about that. That is why they find it so easy to swap political parties from time to time without feeling out of place, without having to battle any contradictions. They are at home anywhere they find themselves.

It is the same set of people that are circulating and re-circulating in the political space. Let’s not kid ourselves.

Having said that, however, let me quickly state my position and then conclude. I wrote, over two years ago, that 2015 is going to be the tightest election ever. I still stand by my postulation. The dynamics are already pointing in that direction. I cannot categorically say that PDP will lose or APC will win, but I can confidently say that it is not going to be a piece of cake for either party. In the past, PDP went into a general election knowing it was going to be a walk-over, mainly because of a heavily fragmented opposition. Winning PDP’s ticket was as good as winning the election, and the battle for PDP’s tickets was, in many instances, fiercer than the actual election.

That effectively meant the PDP had no incentive to deliver the goods. It was all too easy for them.

This puts the emerging strong, viable opposition into perspective. Under normal circumstances, President Goodluck Jonathan should now become desperate to deliver democracy dividends in order to win public support ahead of the 2015 elections. He still has enough time in his hands. On its part, the APC should be raising the game through well-articulated alternative policies and programmes, showing off their credentials in states they currently govern as the basis for Nigerians to choose them ahead of the PDP. Invariably, the parties will have to sweat for every vote.

Okay, there is the rigging factor. I have discounted that. Nigerian politicians are, genetically, election riggers. There will be balance of rigging, as it were.

Now, if my calculations turn out fine - that is, Jonathan rolls up his sleeves and delivers more democracy dividends and APC raises the ante by trying to outperform PDP in the states - then Nigeria and Nigerians will be the unintended beneficiaries of this new wave of politicking. And that way, our democracy will begin to deliver development. Hopefully.